Chances of a regional war

Craig Murray:

Oct. 23 saw possibly the most violent bombardment of Gaza until that point, notably concentrated on precisely the areas into which Israel ordered the population to evacuate. I find it almost impossible to believe that this genocide is under way with the active support of almost all Western governments.

I want to look at two questions — what will happen internationally, and what is happening in Western societies.

Israel plainly is on the course of further escalation and intends to kill many thousands more Palestinians. More than 2,000 Palestinian children alone have now been killed by Israeli aerial attacks in the last fortnight.

Gaza has no defence from bombs and missiles, and there is no military reason why Israel cannot keep this up for months and simply rely upon aerial massacre. We are perhaps within a week of thirst, starvation and disease killing even more people per day than bombardment.

The population of Gaza is simply defenceless. Only international intervention can stop Israel from doing whatever it wishes, and those countries which have influence with Israel are actively abetting and encouraging the genocide.

The question is, what is Israel’s aim? Do they intend to reduce the Gaza Strip still further, annexing half or more of it? Will starvation and horror enable the international community to force Egypt to accept the expulsion of the population of Gaza into the Sinai Desert as a “humanitarian” move?

That appears to be the end game: expulsion of population and territorial expansion into Gaza.

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This is what it means to be Celtic

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Why news outlets and the U.N. rely on Gaza’s Health Ministry for death tolls

Why news outlets and the U.N. rely on Gaza’s Health Ministry for death tolls – The Washington Post
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Integrationsstaatssekretärin wird wegen israelkritischen Instagram-Posts entlassen

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Marjam Samadzade, die Staatssekretärin im schleswig-holsteinischen Ministerium für Soziales, Jugend, Familie, Senioren, Integration und Gleichstellung. (Foto: Christian Charisius/picture alliance/dpa)


Sie ist das erste Mitglied einer Landesregierung, das wegen eines israelkritischen Posts in den sozialen Medien ihren Job verliert: Marjam Samadzade. Die Staatssekretärin für Integration in Schleswig-Holstein hatte vor etwa einer Woche einen Instagram-Beitrag kommentiert und über ihren persönlichen Account weiterverbreitet, in dem die israelische Regierung für ihre Angriffe nach den Terroranschlägen der Hamas heftig kritisiert wurde.

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Human Rights Watch on ICC Investigation on Israel-Palestine

Human Rights Watch:

On October 10, the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory noted there was “clear evidence” of war crimes in Israel and Gaza and that it would be sharing information with relevant judicial authorities, especially the ICC.

Despite this, Human Rights Watch is aware of only three ICC member countries—LiechtensteinSwitzerland, and South Africa—that have made clear statements referring to the ICC and the current hostilities. Ireland’s foreign minister referenced the role of the court in media comments. For others, it appears the ICC may be the judicial elephant in the room.

All ICC members should urgently voice their support for the court’s role.

The response to date stands in stark contrast to other crises, including Ukraine, a non-ICC member country. After the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, the ICC prosecutor spoke out about the court’s critical role, and an unprecedented number of mostly European ICC member countries asked him to open a Ukraine investigation. Even the United States, another non-ICC member, has expressed strong support for the ICC’s role in Ukraine.

The ICC prosecutor has not proactively issued a public statement reminding Israel and Palestinian armed groups of their obligations under international law and of the court’s mandate to investigate their actions. The court’s voice is urgently needed to help prevent further mass atrocities.

Double standards in victims’ access to accountability are unacceptable.

The word „unacceptable“ in statements like this always catchs my eye, as do words like „insist“ and „demand“. When we are observing states commit mass murder what does it mean to „accept“ or „refuse to accept“ what we are seeing? Gaza absolutely does not enter into the daily social conversation of my coworkers. In the summer of 2022 several coworkers in an international team responded to my questions about Ukraine by saying they didn’t talk about the subject out of concern for a Ukrainian colleague’s sensitivities. There was universal agreement that Russia was „wrong“, however, just as in German public life today it is without question that Israel is a victim and „deserves our full support“. There is little opening for discussion, let alone dissent.

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The Mysteries of October 7

Seymour Hersh:

One serious complication that has not been publicly discussed since the October 7 attack is that the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, were not the sole attackers or collectors of hostages on a day in which there was no Israeli Army presence in the kibbutzim and villages under attack for at least eight hours.

“We know,” the American official told me, “that the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade participated.”

I heard a similar account of how the long-planned October 7 attack got out of control from a long-standing expert on Middle Eastern politics who has no access to American intelligence assessments. “The goal of the Palestinian operation,” he told me, “was exactly what happened—a shocking and inspired military operation that humiliated the Israelis and shook them to their foundation. Hamas military commanders had a map of bases [inside Israel] and wanted to take computer servers with all of the potentially compromising information they contained and would probably have sent them to Iran for analysis.”

Another Hamas goal, I was told, was to take Israeli Army prisoners and force Israel to trade for the release of thousands of Gazan and West Bank prisoners, break the siege of Gaza, and continue to compete with the Palestine Liberation Organization that was initially designated by the 1993 Oslo Accords to control the West Bank and Gaza. “A further bonus of a successful attack,” the expert said, “would have been to stifle the ongoing normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel.”

The Qassam wing of Hamas initiated the attack by launching rockets to distract the Israeli military and then disarmed the electronic system that provided round-the-clock surveillance of the fence around Gaza. The Hamas fighters who poured through the destroyed fence were soon followed by local residents of Gaza City who, in their ongoing anger at Israel, were eager to join in on the assault, as were members of other resistance groups in the Gaza Strip. The expert said he was told that attacking the all-night dance party—260 young Israelis were slaughtered that morning—was not part of the initial plan, but no one is denying that, planned or not, the murders at the dance party and in the Israeli settlements ultimately are the responsibility of Hamas.

The expert said that the critical issue for the Israeli military today, in the view of the Hamas leadership, is that a planned Hamas commando raid aimed at seizing IDF soldiers “turned into a prison break.” News of the unchallenged penetration of the initial Hamas attackers quickly spread throughout Gaza, and spontaneous groups of Gazans and hastily formed martyr hit teams poured through the downed fence. The result, said the expert, turned “the operation into a catastrophic success.”

More than 200 hostages were carted off—one can see their abduction in various videos that have emerged—on the backs of a motorcycle or a bicycle or jammed into autos, and now are believed to be scattered in underground tunnels or in private homes throughout Gaza. Their fate may never be known.

There are scores of videos providing evidence of what clearly was a fly-by-night attack that succeeded because of a stunning Israeli Defense Force failure that thus far has not led to the punishment of a single Israeli army officer. That possibility—that the initially limited Hamas goal turned into the horror that took place essentially because of the IDF failure—has yet to be acknowledged by Israel’s military and political leadership. They believe, as the expert said, that Hamas and other factions broke out of Gaza into Israel with specific orders to kill and abduct as many civilians and soldiers as possible.

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conceptually misleading and normatively unacceptable

Richard Falk:

Israel has used the most inflammatory and expansive language to vindicate its retaliatory responses. This lawless Israeli extremism has been blandly endorsed by governments in the US, France, Germany and the UK. Such pronouncements neglect to mention the obligation of the occupying power to administer the territories under its control in ways that give priority to the protection and well-being of the occupied civilian population. The occupier does enjoy a reciprocal right to maintain its security in ways that respect and protect non-combatants.

From such a perspective, it is conceptually misleading and normatively unacceptable for Israel to declare war against an occupied territory, as if the indigenous administrative authority was an enemy foreign government – but this is exactly what Israel has done, including claims of self-defence that do not fit the situation of belligerent occupation.

Ω Ω Ω

If the West continues to endorse the double standards on display during the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza, it will serve as a reminder that the post-colonial world retains an ethos of Orientalist racism when it comes to addressing issues of peace and justice in the Middle East.

By failing to advocate for a ceasefire, western states have given a green light to Israel’s agenda of collective punishment, which might itself be grotesque cover for the regime’s end goal of massive dispossession and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people.

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Appearing to have helped

Guardian:

EU foreign ministers have endorsed a “humanitarian pause” in the war between Israel and Hamas to allow aid to get into Gaza in sufficient quantities.

The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, said there was consensus around the issue at a meeting of the EU ministers in Luxembourg on Monday.

EU leaders are set to discuss the issue at a summit on Thursday after rifts emerged within the bloc over how to respond.

Borrell admitted the EU could not “decree” a temporary cessation in hostilities but said it would help send a message to Israel in the same way Joe Biden’s message about the importance of restraint appears to have helped delay a ground invasion of Gaza.

„Appearing to help“ is very much the position the EU and the US assume. It is not as if either can simply say „No! Israel your actions in bombing Gaza are a war crime. Stop immediately!“ The EU discusses how to help send a message to Israel. Joe Biden’s message appears to have helped.

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Was es heißt, Deutscher zu werden

Nikolas Busse, :

Es wäre nicht zu viel verlangt, wenn Deutschland bei Einbürgerungen künftig ein Bekenntnis zum Existenzrecht Israels verlangt. Natürlich wäre die Anerkennung eines anderen Landes ein ungewöhnlicher Schritt beim Erwerb der deutschen Staatsangehörigkeit. Aber es ist eben auch eine sehr ungewöhnliche Situation, dass in deutschen Großstädten Demonstrationen stattfinden, in denen Menschen mit Migrationshintergrund das Existenzrecht Israels infrage stellen.

Der Bundespräsident nennt jeden einzelnen Angriff auf Juden eine Schande für Deutschland. Dann wäre es gut, wenn jeder, der ein Bürger dieses Deutschlands werden will, darauf aufmerksam gemacht wird, dass er nicht nur einen Pass beantragt, sondern Teil eines Volkes wird, das Lehren aus seiner Geschichte gezogen hat. Wer so etwas unterschreiben muss, macht sich dann vielleicht Gedanken, auf die er wegen seiner Herkunft nicht gekommen wäre.

Ein solches Bekenntnis hätte zudem den Vorteil, dass es Wege zur Rücknahme der Einbürgerung eröffnen könnte. Die Hürden dafür sind hoch in Deutschland, aber in Fällen wie Terrorismus ist es heute schon möglich.

I do not believe this man is joking.

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